The coronavirus pandemic affected almost all the countries around the world, led to the closure of borders, the suspension of production and the cancellation of mass events. But when will it end? There is no exact answer to this question yet. However, in this article we will talk about three possible scenarios.
Control and isolation
Duration: from 3 months and more
It is believed that the pandemic can be stopped by controlling the virus. For this, it will be necessary to identify and isolate patients who are infected so that the disease can not spread. This idea seems logical: an outbreak of SARS in 2003, also caused by a member of the coronavirus family, ended with the isolation of patients.
The main problem with this strategy is that, due to difficulties with the diagnosis of the virus, there is no accurate data on the number of cases. Statistics simply do not take into account those cases when the disease is mild or asymptomatic. This means that many people can be infected, but are not aware those, risking to infect others.
At the same time, experts from China report that the epidemic can be stopped by the summer if all countries take serious quarantine measures. In Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the peak of the coronavirus has already passed, and now authorities have lifted restrictions and opened access to the city of Wuhan. However, there are doubts about whether China is now capable of controlling the outbreak of coronavirus and whether this measure is conducive to continued spread of the virus. Now the hospitals in Wuhan have stopped testing patients and are not recording cases of asymptomatic virus in the human body, which means that there are still many infected people in the city and the epidemic may continue, but perhaps not at such a fast pace.
Vaccination
Duration: 18 months and more
The vaccine is the first way to fight COVID-19. If most people are vaccinated, the pandemic should stop to develop. Tests will be completed in July, and after about 11 months, the vaccine should be finally ready. And in the United States last week, the first person already received an experimental vaccine. This happened after the researchers were allowed to skip the rule of animal testing - primarily because of the crisis. But even if these initial tests succeed, it will still take up to 18 months for any potential vaccine to be available to most people.
The duration of the pandemic will also be affected by how effectively states can fight the virus before the vaccine appears on the market. To do this, they need to slow down its spread (for example, by full or partial quarantine, which we talked about above) and prepare hospitals for a large number of patients by increasing the number of places and mechanical ventilation devices.
Immune system
Duration: from 24 months and more
Finally, the least option: you are likely to get the coronavirus, but it will help to overcome the pandemic. If the virus continues to spread, then in the end many people will be infected and (if they survive) will become immune to it. In this case, the virus will disappear on its own, but it is not known how many people will suffer in such a scenario. This phenomenon is known as collective immunity. Great Britain initially chose the strategy of forming collective immunity, but then abandoned it, believing that this would lead to high hospitalization rates and the need for emergency medical care for a large number of people at the same time.
To summarize, to combat COVID-19, according to various estimates, it will take from 3 to 24 months.
Mexican brewing company Grupo Modelo announced that it would temporarily stop brewing Corona and other brands of beer, since the government ranked it among enterprises whose activities are not essential for the economy and should be stopped for the time of quarantine measures. It is reported by Reuters.
Grupo Modelo has already begun to reduce production volumes and will stop it by Sunday, April the 5th. The company expects to maintain production facilities at the lowest possible load so that they can then be easily restarted again.
The company also noted that beer production refers to agricultural activity, which is nevertheless considered vital for the country's economy.
"If the federal government considers it necessary to clarify and confirm that beer is still agricultural products, we are ready to apply a plan according to which 75% of the staff will work from home, but at the same time it will be possible to ensure the supply of beer," the company said in a statement.
On April 5, there were 1,890 cases of coronavirus infection and 50 deaths in Mexico and 79 deaths. Restrictions on the operation of non-essential enterprises were introduced before April 30.
Heineken, which produces Tecate and Dos Equis in Mexico, is also expected to cease production. The company announced on April 1 that it was stopping the shipment of goods, which caused a booming demand for beer in the country.
The pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc announced on Monday that its experimental vaccine against COVID-19 has an efficiency of over 90%, a major victory in the fight against a pandemic that killed over one million people and affected the world economy.
Pfizer and German partner BioNTech SE are the first drug manufacturers to announce success in a large-scale clinical trial of a coronavirus vaccine. The companies said they have not found any serious security issues so far and expect to apply for US authorization this month for emergency use of the vaccine.
If the vaccine is authorized, the number of doses will initially be limited and many questions remain, including how long it will provide protection.
However, the announcement gives hope that other developing COVID-19 vaccines may prove effective.
Pfizer will seek permission from the US authorities for the emergency use of the vaccine for people between the ages of 16 and 85. To do this, it will need two months of security data from about half of the 44,000 study participants.
Pfizer shares rose 6% higher in New York, while BioNTech shares rose 18%.
The shares of other COVID-19 vaccine developers in the final stages of testing also reacted with AstraZeneca up 0.5% in London, while Johnson & Johnson gained 2.6% and Moderna decreased by 1.8% before the opening of the US market.
Pfizer and BioNTech have a $ 1.95 billion contract with the US government to deliver 100 million doses of vaccine starting this year. The companies have also reached supply agreements with the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada and Japan.
To save time, companies started producing the vaccine before they knew if it would be effective. It is now expected to produce up to 50 million doses, enough to protect 25 million people this year.
Pfizer said it expects to produce up to 1.3 billion doses of vaccine by 2021. Meanwhile, the Internet has exploded with memes, as has Bemorepanda.
1.Zoom and vaccine
2.I'm ready
3.Move on
4.Popping to Boots
5.Me and the fellas
6.Me with besties
7.Not taking the vaccine
8.Same person
9.Taking Covid-19 vaccine
10.All laughting
11.Introverts and the vaccine
12.People in the country
13.Unvaccinated?
14.99 problems
15.AntiVaxx
16.If you die from polio
17.Drink alcohol
18.Being proffesional
19.Because people die
20.Anti-science
21.Anti-Vaxxers
22.Will you be my Valentine?
23.Pass alright
24.Pfitzer and vaccine
25.Thanks Biden
26.One week after elections
27.But when I do
28.Against humans?
29.Pfitzer and the vaccine
30.Me when the vaccine drops
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Real stories of virus outbreaks, horror stories about zombies and a philosophical parable about the plague.
Outbreak
The military kept a dangerous virus in the laboratory, but the infected experimental monkey broke free. Now epidemiologists need to urgently find a vaccine. To do this, they need to find the first carrier - that same animal.
Contagion
A dangerous virus spreads from Asia all over the world. Mortality from it is more than 20%, and a quick mutation complicates the creation of a vaccine. WHO is trying to stop the mass infection and find a "null patient."
World War Z
Former UN employee Jerry Lane stuck with his family in traffic and witnessed a massive outbreak of a zombie virus. Each bitten after 12 seconds turns into a fast and aggressive flesh eater. Having managed to get out of a dangerous situation, Lane joins a group that is trying to find a cure for the virus.
Perfect Sense
Chef Michael and epidemiologist Susan have fallen in love. But they are not able to enjoy a passionate romance, because the world was struck by an outbreak of an unknown virus: people lose their sense of smell, then taste, and then other feelings.
The Andromeda Strain
A military satellite falls to Earth near a small town in Arizona. A dangerous virus escapes from it, killing all residents in the vicinity, except for an old man and a child who is ill with a ulcer. A group of scientists gather in an isolated area to study the disease.
Panic in the Streets
Several criminals kill on the street a man who won a large sum of money in their cards. When the police find the body, the medical examiner discovers that the deceased was infected with pneumonic plague. Now the detectives urgently need to catch the bandits in order to arrest them for the murder, and at the same time save the entire city from the epidemic.
Morte a Venezia
Composer Gustav von Aschenbach is tired of both creativity and life. He goes to relax at a resort near Venice. But soon the hero falls in love with a young Pole and again loses peace. Meanwhile, the cholera epidemic is beginning in the city.
Busanhaeng
Suk Woo is about to take his daughter Su Ahn to her mother in Busan. They board the train, but at the last moment a woman infected with a zombie virus jumps into the car. It turns out that the living dead are already taking over the world. Passengers need to stop the spread of infection within the train and get to a safe place.
The Painted Veil
The film takes place in the 1920s. Middle-class physician Walter married the aristocrat Kitty, but their marriage cannot be called happy. At a certain point, the husband sets a condition: either the wife leaves for her lover, or leaves with her husband in a Chinese village, where he will help fight the cholera outbreak. And it is precisely Walter’s dedication to the dangerous work that makes Kitty truly love him.
28 Days Later
A simple guy Jim comes out of a long coma and discovers that he missed the start of a terrible epidemic. An unknown virus turns people into mindless killers. Jim meets several survivors, and together they try to get to a safe haven. But in the new world, the problem is not only infected.
The COVID-19 vaccine will be a critical tool that, combined with effective testing and existing preventive measures, will help bring the pandemic under control. Experts around the world are working hard to accelerate the development and production of a safe and effective vaccine. Bemorepanda answers some important questions aboutthe vaccine.
UNICEF is committed to delivering COVID-19 vaccines to 92 countries through the COVAX Mechanism, a unique initiative to produce and centrally procure COVID-19 vaccines. It works with governments and manufacturers to make vaccines available to both wealthy and low-income countries. As part of the global distribution, doses of vaccines have been reserved for the Republic of Tajikistan, which will be delivered to the country in the near future. The first batch of vaccines will contain 732 thousand doses of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Priority populations to be vaccinated first include health and social workers, citizens over 50 and people with chronic noncommunicable diseases.
At the same time, the threat to children from COVID-19 is enormous, and it goes far beyond the immediate physical consequences of the disease. Continued or reintroduced isolation measures seriously affect children's access to basic health services. As a result, declining coverage of routine health services and an impending recession threaten the health and future of an entire generation of children. Below are answers to some of the most common questions parents may have about a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
1. What types of COVID-19 vaccines are being developed? How will they proceed?
Scientists are developing many potential COVID-19 vaccines, all designed to teach the body's immune system to safely recognize and block the virus that causes COVID-19. The different types of vaccines include:
Inactivated or attenuated viral vaccines that use a type of virus that does not cause disease but still elicits an immune response
Protein vaccines, which are a protein or protein fragment of COVID-19 that safely induce an immune response
Viral vector vaccines that use a virus designed so that it cannot cause disease, but produces COVID-19 proteins for a safe viral response
RNA and DNA vaccines, a novel approach that provides "instructions" for cells to create a protein that safely induces an immune response
2. What benefit will getting the COVID-19 vaccine bring?
COVID-19 is easily transmitted and can lead to serious illness and death, even for young and healthy people.
COVID-19 vaccines will be approved for use in the Republic of Tajikistan only if large, rigorous and rigorous scientific research shows they can safely reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection.
Scientists are investigating whether people who receive the COVID-19 vaccine will be less likely to transmit the COVID-19 virus to others. If this is the case, then vaccination can be a powerful way not only to protect yourself, but society as a whole.
3. How do we know if COVID-19 vaccines are safe?
There are many stringent safeguards that can help keep COVID-19 vaccines safe. Like all vaccines, COVID-19 vaccines must go through a rigorous multi-step testing process, including research involving tens of thousands of people. These trials, which involve people at high risk of contracting COVID-19, are specifically designed to look for any common side effects or other safety concerns.
Once the results of clinical trials become available, a number of steps will need to be taken, including an efficacy and safety review to obtain regulatory approvals and public health policy before a vaccine can be introduced. Once the COVID-19 vaccine is introduced, it will be closely monitored at all times for any unexpected side effects.
4. Will COVID-19 vaccines provide long-term protection?
Initial results from some vaccine trials have shown very encouraging results. Research is ongoing to obtain more information on how long these vaccines will provide protection. However, it is encouraging that the available evidence suggests that most people who recover from COVID-19 develop an immune response that provides at least some protection against reinfection - although we are still studying how strong this protection is and for how long. she will last.
It is also not clear how many doses of COVID-19 vaccine will be needed. Early data from clinical trials indicate that some vaccines will require two doses.
5. Will vaccinations against other diseases help protect me from COVID-19?
There is currently no evidence that vaccines for other diseases will protect against COVID-19. However, scientists are studying whether some of them - such as the Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine, used to prevent tuberculosis - will also be effective at protecting against COVID-19 or not. For now, however, no other vaccine is recommended to protect against COVID-19.
6. How quickly can COVID-19 vaccines cope with the pandemic?
We do not know how quickly COVID-19 vaccines could have tackled the pandemic. This will depend on many factors, such as the level of effectiveness of the vaccines, how quickly they are approved and manufactured, how many people get vaccinated, and continued compliance with measures such as physical distancing, hand washing and the use of masks.
7. When will COVID-19 vaccines be ready for distribution?
The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan is currently working to obtain the most suitable and safe vaccines against COVID-19 and will keep the public informed of any further changes.
Many potential COVID-19 vaccines are currently being studied to determine if they are safe and effective. Large studies of some of these vaccines have shown promising preliminary results and it is likely that additional studies will be announced soon.
Once a vaccine has proven to be safe and effective, it must be approved by the national regulatory authority / ministry of health before it can be introduced in a country.
8. Will there be enough COVID-19 vaccines for everyone? If not, who gets them first?
Initially, the supply of vaccines against COVID-19 to the country will be limited, that is, the vaccination process will be carried out in stages, taking into account high-risk groups. In accordance with the plan of the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan on the introduction of vaccines, the initial target groups will include:
Frontline healthcare workers (doctors, nurses, paramedics) - It is important to vaccinate frontline healthcare workers first, not only to protect them from disease, but so that they can continue to serve the masses and continue to fight the pandemic.
Elderly people aged 60 and over who are in a group with a high incidence rate.
People with concomitant diseases aged 20 and older (HIV, diabetes, tuberculosis, hypertension, chronic respiratory diseases, coronary heart disease, cancer).
Once enough doses have been received, the government will call for vaccination of all those who are eligible. In the short term, it is important that everyone - including those who are vaccinated - continue to follow all available measures to help stop the spread of COVID-19, such as physical distancing, use of masks, and hand washing with soap and water.
9. If I receive the COVID-19 vaccine, will I need to take other precautions such as physical distancing?
Yes. For now, we recommend that everyone - including those who have been vaccinated - continue to follow all available measures to help stop the spread of COVID-19, such as physical distancing, frequent hand washing with soap and the use of masks. Adhering to all of these measures in combination will provide the best possible protection against infection and spread of COVID-19. In the future, as more people are vaccinated, and as we learn more about the "real world" protection offered by COVID-19 vaccines, this recommendation may change.
10. How can I learn more about COVID-19 vaccines?
In order to make an informed choice and keep abreast of the latest developments, everyone must rely on reliable and authoritative sources of information, such as medical institutions and government health authorities. (Ministry of Health, RCIP, state television).
Ignore rumors and misinformation spread on various social networks and other unreliable sources.
The Government of Tajikistan is working with other stakeholders to obtain the most appropriate vaccines for COVID-19 and will keep you informed of any further developments.
