The worst-case scenario of the coronavirus epidemic revealed
The COVID-19 pandemic could have killed 40 million deaths by the end of 2020 in the absence of any preventative measures, according to Imperial College London (UK).
Researchers included a number of scenarios, such as
- What would have happened if the world had not reacted to COVID-19,
- Two scenarios incorporating social distancing, which result in a single-peaked epidemic
- And several scenarios for suppressing the spread of the disease that can have the largest overall impact in terms of reducing disease and deaths.
It is noted that ignoring all security measures would lead to a worse development of the coronavirus epidemic and infection of seven billion people. This number would be halved if the number of contacts had been reduced by 40 percent for children, young people and adults, and 60 percent for older people.
Dr Patrick Walker, an author of the report from Imperial, said: "We estimate that the world faces an unprecedented acute public health emergency in the coming weeks and months. Our findings suggest that all countries face a choice between intensive and costly measures to suppress transmission or risk health systems becoming rapidly overwhelmed. However, our results highlight that rapid, decisive and collective action now will save millions of lives in the next year"
The study shows that poor countries will lose far more people than developed ones. A press release from the British university emphasizes that the problem of COVID-19 is common to all countries on Earth.
The modelling showed that implementing measures early on can have a dramatic impact.
If all countries were to adopt this strategy at 0.2 deaths per 100,000 population per week, 95 per cent of the deaths could be averted, saving 38.7 million lives.
However, if this strategy is adopted later (1.6 deaths per 100,000 population per week), then this figure drops to 30.7 million.
In March, Chinese experts published a study in JAMA Cardiology, which claimed that diseases of the cardiovascular system increases mortality by almost 4.5 times from coronavirus.
As of today, the 25th of March the coronavirus has killed more than 20,912 people worldwide and the majority of them are from Europe, reaching a number of 13,582 people, according to AFP.
The number of cases infected with coronavirus passed 463,408, while 113,802 have recovered. More than 328,704 patients are in mild conditions and 14,379 are in either serious or critical condition.
Italy is the most affected country with over 7,503 death followed by Spain with 3,434 deaths and China, with 3,281.
As more countries are faced with complete lockdown, US Senate leader have agreed a $2 trillion stimulus package with the White House.
India is now on a lockdown for 21 days, with more than 1.3 million people on quarantine. Narendra Modi, the prime minister, told Indians that he was banning people from leaving their homes in order to save the country, all the citizens and their family. He also stressed that if after 21 days the situation will not stop or improve then the country’s development risked being set back 21 years.
New Zealand has declared State of National Emergency after reporting more than 200 cases of coronavirus. Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister, called on every citizen to ‘act like you have Covid-19’ and warned that those violating compulsory stay-at-home rules would face “no tolerance”.
As of today, there are more than three billion people living under lockdown measures in order to stop spreading the coronavirus, which the United Nations warned that is threatening all of humanity.
“Covid-19 is threatening the whole of humanity – and the whole of humanity must fight back,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said, launching an appeal for $2 billion to help the world’s poor.
“Global action and solidarity are crucial. Individual country responses are not going to be enough.”
Their relatives, friends, friends of their friends died. In all families there is a tragic story: death, illness, poverty, bankruptcy. After 11 weeks of severe quarantine, the "lock" was opened and Wuhan City, the "heart" of the pandemic that has plagued the world is trying to come back to life.
The city with 11 million inhabitants begins to fall asleep after more than two and a half months, it was like a ghost. The new coronavirus started right here from an animal and bird market and spread uncontrolled across the globe. Today (April 8), a few days after China had no local transmission case, and just a day after the historic "no death of Covid-19" restrictions were lifted. The quarantine imposed on January 23 ended at midnight Tuesday through Wednesday, and passengers began storming buses and stations, some wearing full-length suits.
But the over 80,000 cases and 3,300 deaths remain behind and the hope that one day the world will look exactly like before the coronavirus. For now, it's just hope, because there's a long way to go.
Although some restrictions have been lifted by the authorities, many control measures remain in place. The Chinese were warned not to travel unless absolutely necessary. Those who go to Beijing go through two rounds of tests, and in other provinces, those who come to Wuhan have to be quarantined for two weeks, the New York Times writes.
In addition, everyone is required to use a tracking application on their phone or tablet and to prove that they were not sick or did not come into contact with sick people of COVID-19. The Chinese system records every place where people make payments and the network of hundreds of millions of surveillance video cameras is famous.
Over the past few months, the coronavirus pandemic seemed to stay out of the African continent. Coronavirus came around in the world's largest concentration of people with HIV. However this is no longer the case as people are now starting to prepare for the worst.
The first cases of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa were confirmed just three weeks ago but the rate of infection in countries like South Africa is climbing easily.
With more than 200 people infected, the government has announced that schools are shutting down and large gatherings are banned.
The police is arresting citizens who test positive to the coronavirus and refuse to go into quarantine.
However, the authorities can't stop the coronavirus spreading and just about everyone in this country understands it, including South Africa's health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize.
"In any community, 60% to 70% of the population will be affected by the virus. We can't hide that... most of us will have this virus," he told a group of doctors in the capital Pretoria.
He asked the nation to be careful and understand the harmful effects of coronavirus, while South Africa has "unique dynamics" he said, with the world's largest concentration of people with HIV, plus a significant number with tuberculosis.